Voting Intention President Argentina 2011
Method: Interactive and semi-personal interviews.
Consultation Period: From 25 April to 4 May 2011.
Survey Type: Face-oriented options, according to the questionnaire prepared for this study to investigate and evaluate Intent to Vote on Candidate Image.
Options: Cristina Fernandez - Ricardo Alfonsin - Alberto Rodriguez Saa - Mauricio Macri - Hermes Binner - Eduardo Duhalde - Fernando Solanas - Elisa Carrio - Jorge Altamira - Blank / Null - Other / a - NS / NC (projected) .
Application Universe: Argentina.
Sample Type: Probabilistic multistage random.
Sample size: 8,310 registered voters.
Selection Criteria: By gender, age group and socio-cultural class, referred to as Circuit for Electoral Register.
Distribution: Symmetric proportion of undecided (NS / NC), including as variable recalculation of the relationship recorded projection of positive-negative candidate in such cases.
Comments: The same criteria applied to project the 10 options considered valid. Blank votes and treacherously Null, no project or join the percentage total.
As the slogan raised by this multidisciplinary national team was to establish minimum conditions or any "electoral floor" of the current President of the Nation, the function of recalculation turned only two-thirds of the respective projected percentage and proportion in the remaining third the other candidates.
design of the date of this Opinion Poll, the leading presidential candidates were listed in the Options Nominal, although at least two show signs of abandoning nominations.
estimated maximum error ± 5%
confidence: 92%
Tallied
by District and Contribution to Total National
with the Front Range for Victoria
Up to 34%
References: Between 35 and 44%
Greater than 45%
Conclusions
slight differences were noticed compared to previous Survey, conducted between 4 and April 15 , showing Districts stable and others increased or waned Voting Intention to FPV in October. In assessing two separate national totals, is shown a small increase in the estimated electoral Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, from the little ostensible decrease in undecided.
is a systematic survey with high standards and strict Statistical Analysis Projection Algorithms. Although it was consulted only to 0.3 or / oo National Register, it is reliable so intentionally to represent proportional to the electorate, according to the Selection Criteria listed.
addition, this study provides a tight probabilistic approach to the national scene, fully and not as a sum of partial data methodologies and assumptions discordant diffuse.
While a diagnosis of possible causes of positive and negative changes to the FPV, is the decision of the management team of "MAF" not to disseminate such inferences because of inaccurate testing and because it is considered that the analysis are socio-political powers of this Opinion Poll.
Stands
Map of Argentina: Electoral and Political
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